Overview

The document is the 2021-2023 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) of the Federal Government of Nigeria, prepared by the Budget Office of the Federation in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning. It outlines the government's fiscal policies, macroeconomic projections, and expenditure plans for the three-year period. The framework is based on a global oil price benchmark of $40 per barrel, daily oil production of 1.86 million barrels, an exchange rate of N379 per US dollar, and GDP growth projections of 2.5% in 2021, 2.8% in 2022, and 3.0% in 2023. The document reviews the economic and fiscal outlook, both global and domestic, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyzes the performance of the 2019 budget and the implementation of the 2020 budget up to June. Key macroeconomic indicators discussed include real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, trade balance, external reserves, and capital flows. The fiscal outlook highlights revenue projections from oil and non-oil sources, such as Company Income Tax (CIT), Value Added Tax (VAT), Customs duties, and Independent Revenue. Expenditure projections cover recurrent costs (debt service, personnel, overheads), capital expenditure, and special interventions under the Economic Sustainability Plan. The document also outlines the tax expenditure statement and identifies fiscal risks, including oil price volatility, lower production, and security challenges. Strategic priorities include infrastructure development, human capital investment, job creation, and poverty reduction.

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