Overview

This document, titled 'Nigeria Energy Transition Plan - Baseline and Scenarios,' dated June 2021, presents preliminary results of Nigeria's energy transition analysis, focusing on energy consumption and industrial process emissions. It is confidential and proprietary to McKinsey & Company. The document outlines that Nigeria's total GHG emissions in 2020 are estimated at ~275 Mt CO2e, with 65% (179 Mt CO2e) related to energy consumption and industrial processes. Sectors covered include power, residential, commercial, industry, oil and gas, and transport, while agriculture and waste are out of scope except for energy used in agriculture. Four critical components of emissions are identified: power generation (including residential and commercial generators), industry, oil and gas (including flaring and fugitives), and cooking (biomass use). Primary energy consumption is ~3200 PJ annually, with 80% from biomass and oil, and 56% from biomass alone. The document emphasizes that the revision of Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is ongoing and may affect results. Key points include emissions breakdown by sector, types of emissions (energy vs. fugitives), and the significance of LULUCF (land use, land use change, and forestry) partially considered due to biomass use for cooking. The analysis aims to support decarbonization scenarios for Nigeria.

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